[Zderf]

Having been in the airline support business my whole life, I can assure you that the majority of the operating expense for our domestic air carriers is "domestic" in origin.

It might go something like this:
-Fuel (this would be more domestic if we could drill for oil)
-Labor (domestic)
-Direct Aircraft Maintenance (not much foreign content on Boeing and Douglas types, much more of course on Airbus and the growing fleets of regional aircraft) Still mostly domestic content.
-Contract maintenance (mostly domestic suppliers, but for N registered aircraft operating abroad, some foreign repair station support using domestic parts if Boeing or Douglas)
-Consumable supplies (mostly domestic, no Chinese toilet paper yet)
-Food/drink (foreign beer maybe, but Jimmy Carter peanuts)

We haven't seen anything yet. The commercial air transport system is changed forever. This is not a cycle, but a new reality...... Our old major airlines simply do not have the culture that will allow them to face the new realities and do something today to change it. On the other hand, Jet Blue, Southwest, AirTran, Frontier, and HOOTERS have the culture that will allow them to quickly recognize needed changes and implement them.

GM, Ford, and Daimler Chrysler are no different. But their advantage is that vehicle travel is somewhat less discretionary than air travel, and the terrorists haven't figure out how to fly them into sky scrapers.

Be absolutely certain, that is our air transport system continues to melt down, everyone's lives will change to some degree. And sans competition, air fares will eventually follow the escalation curves enjoyed in the insurance industry. You'll need your Cobras, as they will be far more economical for transcontinental travel than by air.

Regrets....

Zderf