Dividing Revolutionary Guards ranks
One segment will follow the radical Ahmadinejad line dedicated to the
relentless pursuit of a nuclear bomb; the other will opt for the less
extreme, more pragmatic path led by Khameni, Rafsanjani and Larijani,
which urges Iran to be content with the ability to make a bomb without
going all the way. This is the way, they believe, to avoid an economic, or
even military, crunch with the United States.
The White House calculated that if the second course prevailed in Tehran ,
Ahmadinejad would lose his power base.
It is hard for people in the West to comprehend how fired up the Iranian
president is to lead the world into a Gog and Magog confrontation with
America . It is even harder to understand his fanatical conviction that
this conflict is inescapable because, although the slaughter will be
unparalleled, it will bring about the coming of the Shiite messiah, the
Mahdi or Emam-e Zaman.
All mankind will then embrace the true Islam, the Shia, and there will be
no more wars.
This may seem to Western minds the ravings of a lunatic. However,
Ahmadinejad is sincere in his wild beliefs and powerful enough to act on
them.
He has even set aside and furbished a splendid hotel in Tehran “for the
Mahdi.” Thousands of believers make the pilgrimage to the hotel every
month for obeisance to a well in its grounds, where they have been told
the Madhi is hiding until his time comes.
Since he was elected president in early 2006, Ahmadinejad has worked hard
to make his apocalyptic vision come true. He draws inspiration from his
mentor Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, who preaches tirelessly that
eternal redemption is near and all of mankind will soon bow to Shiite
Muslim hegemony.
Ahmadinejad is now bent on usurping Ayatollah Khamenei as supreme ruler,
constantly sniping at the ayatollah and chipping away at his authority –
especially since there is a fresh round of rumors of his serious illness.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources, Khamenei was twice
hospitalized in the past month in a private ward. The nature of his
illness is not known.
Under the Islamic Republic’s constitution, only a high-ranking cleric may
officiate as supreme ruler.
Ahmadenijad strips the supreme ruler of his mainstays
Ahmadinejad does not meet that job description, but since he became
president he never stops sermonizing. Even his appearances at New York ’s
Columbia University and the UN General Assembly last month turned on
religious themes.
He seems to believe that because he has the support of the powerful
Revolutionary Guards, he can rise to the top job without qualifying as an
accredited ayatollah.
Our Iranian sources confirm that Mottaki did indeed tender his resignation
as foreign minister, although he and the president later denied it. He is
paying the price for his general lack of enterprise and lackluster
performance. But his head will roll because Ahmadinejad has determined
that Iran must adopt an aggressive foreign posture and plans to insert his
own man in the job.
In the president’s eyes, Larijani’s departure was a prime asset. It
weakens Khamenei’s inner circle by removing a talented and formidable
official.
He is now gunning for Khamenei’s closest ally, the former president
Rafsanjani - in particular, since this week he came out in support of the
students’ revolt against the president in person at Tehran ’s Amir Kabir
University . Rafsanjani approved of their struggle for democracy in Iran
and the students’ right to freedom of speech and protest, praising them as
the country’s “generation of the future.”
Rafsanjani talked to the students after two days of riotous demonstrations
demanding the release of three of their number, who had been sentenced to
long terms in prison
The meeting was covered by Iranian state television reporters and cameramen.
When he heard of these events, Ahmadinejad cut short his state visit to
neighboring Armenia on Oct. 23 and rushed home. His first action was to
order television and radio to black Rafsanjani’s meeting with the
students.
On his way to the top, the president is determined to finally crush his
rival. If he succeeds, there will be little to stop the creeping coup
d’etat he is pursuing, egged on by the ferocious Revolutionary Guards,
with grave repercussions for world peace.
This was in the mind of George Bush when he ordered the new round of
sanctions.
Putin’s Standoff with Tehran
Deal on Caspian Resources - or No Nuclear Ties
No one is admitting this in public, but Russian president Vladimir Putin’s
hyped-up visit to Tehran Oct. 16 ended in crisis.
Nine days later, a cover statement was issued by First Deputy Prime
Minister Sergei Ivanov in Moscow Thursday, Oct. 25:
“The Bushehr nuclear power plant Russia is building for Iran will operate
under the strict control of the United Nations nuclear watchdog,” he
declared. “After the fuel is delivered to Iran , it will come instantly
under the full and total control of the IAEA.”
Ivanov said the timetable for Russia to deliver the first consignment of
nuclear fuel to Bushehr depends on “resolving disputes” with Iran about
payment for the plant.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Moscow and Tehran sources disclose, however, that no
timetable has been fixed for the delivery of nuclear fuel for a more
compelling reason than the usual bickering over payment between Russia and
Iran .
During his talks with Iranian leaders, which took place alongside the
Caspian Summit of Russian, Iranian, Azerbaijan , Turkmenistan and Kazakh
rulers, Putin laid down his terms: Either Tehran accepts the accord
drafted in Moscow for the exploitation and distribution of Caspian Sea
resources, or Russia discontinues its work on the Bushehr nuclear reactor
and withholds the fuel for its activation.
One of the terms obliges Iran to agree in advance that the
oil and gas
extracted from the Caspian be moved out through Russian-owned pipelines.
The president further stipulated that Russia would lay down the
international benchmarks for the distribution of these natural resources.
Tehran must pledge not to interfere in the secret contracts Moscow signed
in the past with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan for dividing the Caspian region
and its riches amongst themselves.
The only issue on which the Caspian rulers agreed was to refrain from
further exploration or drilling in the sea bed. By bottling up the
underwater resources, Moscow , Tehran and the other three Caspian partners
made sure to keep world
oil prices jacked high.
Our Moscow sources reveal that Putin felt safe in turning the screw on
Iran in view of its deep economic crisis and acute shortage of cash for
catching up on its arrears for work the Russians have already performed on
the reactor.