Quote:
Originally Posted by GlynMeek
Here's what confuses me. (well, just one of the things) We hear that even if we started drilling today, we wouldn't see the benefit for years. On average, it takes maybe 60 days for the average 'hole in the ground' to determine if it is a producer, perhaps another 30 to cap it and start production, after which the oil can be taken directly to the refinery...perhaps a few days to refine it into gasoline etc.
I make that 3 months, give or take...how come the government tells us 5 years?
What am I missing?
Glyn |
I'll chime in - the missed part is whether of not
oil is found - the
oil companies want to drill in areas that are now off limits because they believe oil can be found - if that proves to be true, the time it takes to 'produce' is drastically reduced - of course, if it's in the middle of the ocean a little more time is needed.
Here's part of a web article that need be of interest....
How the Leasing and Exploration Process Works
When a company decides to take the financial risk on a promising subsurface structure, they usually bid on a cluster of blocks to include the entire structure and its periphery. But if the first couple of exploratory wells are unsuccessful, the company may judge the remaining blocks as too risky for further drilling, and allow the leases to expire.
Much of the 68 million non-producing acres may be in the “risky” category. Legislation to force companies to drill on all leases is superfluous because those leases will eventually expire. The US Minerals Management Service (MMS) can then reoffer expired blocks to see if another company is willing to take the financial risk.
In order to discover major oil fields, the industry needs access to extensive areas where exploratory drilling has been minimal. Most such areas are offshore, currently under moratorium. With access to extensive areas, major companies capable of taking big financial risks can conduct and share geophysical surveys, from which they decipher geologic structures. They drill off-structure core holes to analyze sediments for oil-prone organic material. Companies assemble the data to develop hypotheses about the conversion of organic material into oil in source rock, and its migration and accumulation in commercial concentrations in postulated geologic structures.
MMS then issues a “call for nominations,” asking companies what areas their studies show are prospective. MMS compiles nominations and selects areas that comply with political and environmental issues. Companies bid competitively on blocks that are mapped in a 3-mile by 3-mile grid. High bid wins the right to drill on each block. MMS sets minimum bids for blocks based on prospective attractiveness, timetables for drilling the first well and subsequent wells, and expiration dates.
The “sweaty palms” stage is when a company drills its first well, the ultimate test of their hypothesis for the generation, migration, and accumulation of oil. To maximize data from the well, they conduct detailed seismic surveys to determine the most advantageous path for the well, and to locate depths for capturing samples of rock and fluids. All this takes time and money, but physical information from the subsurface is critical for developing a 3-D geologic picture, to determine subsequent drilling. If the well is a non-producer, the company may recompile all data, revise their hypothesis, and decide that nearby structures are worth testing. But if the sediments do not show promising features, the company may see the weakness of their hypothesis, and decide to abandon the area.
No Quick Fixes
Congressional leaders use the sound bite, “We can’t drill our way out of this oil mess.” Of course; who ever claimed we could? But we can’t conserve our way out either. Reducing demand is a long-term process; “evolution” may be a more accurate term. Tightening CAFE standards will ease demand, but the benefit would be spread over many years. For long-term reduction, we would have to overhaul our daily travel patterns through societal lifestyle changes while we restructure our cities and suburbs. Such fundamental changes will take a human generation or longer. It took decades for the car culture to evolve in the U.S. It will take that long to reverse it.
The popular alternatives (biofuels, wind, solar) could be the subject of another paper, but they have minimal potential to substitute for transportation fuels. We need to recognize the unique nature of liquid fuels, that the US will depend heavily on oil imports for decades, and that “energy independence” is a fanciful hope.
Opening prospective areas under moratorium would allow fresh exploration where little previous work has been done. It will offer us the best chance for significant discoveries that could stabilize domestic production. Every barrel of oil we produce domestically is one less barrel that we must import. And while they’re at it, Congress should approve leasing for the coastal plane of ANWR so we can learn what resources are really there.
Tom Standing began his career as a chemical engineer in refinery operations and later shifted to work as an engineer for the San Francisco water system. He is self-taught in the sciences of petroleum production, geology and geochemistry.
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Just think if Clinton had not vetos drilling at ANWR around 10 years ago, we would be in a lot better shape.
Let's face it, we are oil users, big time and for our government to place known domestic sources of oil off limits with no viable alternative plan is insane.