New federal regulations make it easier to build and buy classic car replicas

[twobjshelbys]

I think the whole thing is academic. The entire process was created started at a time when the potential existed for a fairly good sized market, but that market was in fact fixed and small and declining, and not capable of supporting a large number of manufactures, even for some vehicles, only one.

Since then the consumer pool has shrunk. Let's face it, 20 year olds aren't interested in Cobras, and most of the people here while they love their Cobras, aren't going to be willing to spend the money on a fully compliant turnkey car. A roller + power train from even the cheapest kit will now approach 100K. A fully completed car with warrantied power train and the builder/dealer overhead will realistically approach 200k.

The TAM for this kind of car in fiberglass is practically nil. Why? Because you can get a Kirkham roller and finish it for the same price.

The TAM is fixed and very small for a price point in the 200K range. Get all of the current viable Cobra kit makers in the market and none of them will make enough to make it a profitable venture. If they do attrition will take care of supply vs demand quickly.

I don't think there will be more than a handful of participants and their volumes will no where approach the limits.

Kit Cobras will continue to be popular. But the TAM (Total Available Market) for them decreases daily as the TAM ages.

Like I said, a status report in a year will tell what really is happening.

[sunman]

BS, the shape is not trademarked. Shelby vs FFR
The 102 page “Final Rule” is NHTSA 2001 0006, Rin 2127- AL77 the real ruling issued by the government on 02 22 2022. It’s not just internet info, it’s real life

[twobjshelbys]

Re Engines: The bill speaks of a "certificate of conformity" issued by the Administrator, but doesn't specifically say who that administrator is.

It also requires some very specific information from the engine manufacturer, a requirement that the builder install according to those instructions and a REQUIREMENT that the engine manufacture provide warranty support (not the builder).

This is old memory cells, but my recollection GM did apply for such with the LS3, but I also remember seeing articles that the whole bill had dragged on for so long that they had let the certificate expire (it seems from the wording you'd need a new one for each year that the engine is used.)

Ford, having no customer, and given the warranty requirement, chose not to apply during the time before the bill was approved (a good move since it took years). Will they submit Coyote? I'd wager yes, provided they have ENOUGH CUSTOMERS!!! So this would involve someone saying "I'll buy "n" engines from you if you get the required paperwork and make the appropriate engine manufacturer commitments".

This whole thing wreaks of "I could have a ham sandwich, if I had some ham, if I had some bread".

Time will tell...

[twobjshelbys]

It may be that the Cobra space fits into a rather large loophole, yet, there was no big rush 4 or 5 years ago, and so far Lance is the only one saying he would when he said in the past he wouldn't. Time will tell.

[sunman]

You can now sell a new Cobra with a EV West Tesla crate motor/transmission with no current government safety or emissions regulations. Shelby lost his trademark lawsuit.

The batteries will fit in the trunk and where the gas tank goes.
Photovoltaic power is the future considering the elimination of moving parts in the engineering.
Adoption of new technologies is a sharp rising S curve and we are just starting to see a climb in the curve for electric cars.

$50K (and dropping according to Elon) for the EV West Tesla unit with batteries plus cost for a roller. 500 horsepower 800 ft lbs instant torque
The horses have vanished the gas motor is next

I could buy the rest of Classic Roadsters from Ryan, stick this motor in my zero mile untitled MSOed “Classic 427” and sell it as new just like DeLoreans. Car #2 and up would have 304 stainless laser welded, one piece mandrill bent main tube Excalibur chassis’s. Classic Roadsters EV, LLC.

Just saying, sounds like a lot of work, I’m kinda busy
Praying for Peace

[nkb]

I don't think anyone posted the Superformance/Shelby Legendary Car news release:

https://www.shelbylegendarycars.com/...-under-lvm-act

[sunman]

I am waiting to see what FFR and ERA are going to do.
They maybe want to compete and have a difference in opinion on the licensing.
Notice the use of the terms “Shelby branded” and “Cobra”
Same old Shelby jive talk
Hey more lawsuits.
Here’s your Ford emissions motor coming soon thank you SPF

[Mark IV]

Originally Posted by twobjshelbys

I think the whole thing is academic. The entire process was created started at a time when the potential existed for a fairly good sized market, but that market was in fact fixed and small and declining, and not capable of supporting a large number of manufactures, even for some vehicles, only one.

Since then the consumer pool has shrunk. Let's face it, 20 year olds aren't interested in Cobras, and most of the people here while they love their Cobras, aren't going to be willing to spend the money on a fully compliant turnkey car. A roller + power train from even the cheapest kit will now approach 100K. A fully completed car with warrantied power train and the builder/dealer overhead will realistically approach 200k.

The TAM for this kind of car in fiberglass is practically nil. Why? Because you can get a Kirkham roller and finish it for the same price.

The TAM is fixed and very small for a price point in the 200K range. Get all of the current viable Cobra kit makers in the market and none of them will make enough to make it a profitable venture. If they do attrition will take care of supply vs demand quickly.

I don't think there will be more than a handful of participants and their volumes will no where approach the limits.

Kit Cobras will continue to be popular. But the TAM (Total Available Market) for them decreases daily as the TAM ages.

Like I said, a status report in a year will tell what really is happening.

The TAM may not 325 units, it may not be 200, it may only be 50 (BTW, the original proposal was for 500 units per manufacturer, but it was opposed. Guess by who? GM! Like the extra 175 was gonna cut into their share!)

The market for these "turn-key" cars is the disposable income buyer who:

1) Sees a car, wants it and lays the money down, instant gratification

2) Wants a car, but doesn't want to deal with the build-out, registration process, etc.

3) Needs to finance with the car as collateral, something with very limited sources now as most banks assign NO value to a car who's VIN doesn't show in the system

4) Wants a "real" car (I know, this is a stretch) with a warranty and some sort of support

There IS a market. Is it huge? No. Does it exist? Yes.

[eschaider]

Originally Posted by sunman

...
The 102 page “Final Rule” is NHTSA 2001 0006, Rin 2127- AL77 the real ruling issued by the government on 02 22 2022. It’s not just internet info, it’s real life

This statement is correct and is in fact the same document I referenced in post #20 along with a link to the actual document.

The bullet points in post #20 were copied from that same final document and in fact state the need for licensing, albeit in the form of a manufacturer certification that the vehicles are being produced under license to the original manufacturer, it's successor, assignee, or current owner of the IP.

That still leaves us with a licensing log jam. The log jam, of course, provides an opportunity for Shelby to sell licenses at some price to replicate the vehicle. As we all know Shelby historically has not done this for a variety of reasons usually known only to Shelby.

By adjusting licensing fees, minimally the cost and if fees get too high, even the availability of replicas other than Shelby and maybe Superformance simply disappears. All that presupposes that Shelby would even offer licenses, which as we all know he has historically been reluctant (except for Superformance) to do.

Bottom line, no license then no replica under this law.

[sunman]

On October 13th 2010 the United States Trademark Trial and Appeals Board ruled Shelby does not have trademark rights to the shape of the Cobra.
Nobody does, public domain.
Shelby sued FFR. Lost the case.
On the Shelby Legendary web site they claim “trade dress” rights only to the Daytona Coupe. Read carefully. Everything else is just rights to the brands.

Shelby owns the “brand” Shelby and Cobra and whatever else
This is old news everybody knows

This is real life not a Shelby press release

[twobjshelbys]

Originally Posted by Mark IV

There IS a market. Is it huge? No. Does it exist? Yes.

Yes, there is no doubt there is a market but is it even close to the numbers that make it economically viable? Noone is going to enter the market for 1 turnkey car - the cost would be prohibitive. What is the materials cost + amortized overhead costs (like warranty reserves) that make it viable? Is it 10? 20? 50? It all depends on how much they can buy the roller for. Now Superformance makes their own so they get it at "transfer cost". Then add the power train cost (probably discounted over a street engine but still not half), and add the amortized fees and then add 20+% profit. Can you sell one with those constraints for 200K-ish? Maybe, but only if the numbers allow you to divide the other costs over enough volume. Then, if others jump into the pool, the TAM isn't additive - each manufacturer doing it divides the TAM up, so the volumes per manufacturer go down.

I really don't see room for more than one, maybe two, manufacturers in the Cobra space and that dwindles over time with the aging of the interested population.

Time will tell...

[sunman]

I’ve been doing a lot of stretching lately not really concerned about the cars.
I’m gonna be ready to kiss my butt good bye way things are going.

Sunman, out

[RUFdriver]

Doesn’t Ford own the Cobra name?

[sunman]

They own “1967 Mustang Fastback” for sure that they just licensed to Charge.
Electric top end world class car for $445,000 from England.
Google it up, links disappear with time on this forum.
Shelby Legendary has an R in a circle next to Cobra on the website. Every trademark they own is listed.

[RUFdriver]

I bet that “R” refers to the Ford trademark….but I’m no lawyer.

[sunman]

You lost the bet too
Shelby Legendary website bottom of first page they claim
“Carroll Shelby Licensing, Inc.” owns 7 registered trademarks “Cobra” being one
Check out “The Winding Roads of Shelbys Cobra”, by Peggy Keene for more Cobra IP info.

[RUFdriver]

Interesting , I just looked this up the worldwide Cobra trademark has been owned by Ford since 2008 but the current status is listed as “Status710 - Cancelled - Section 8”. I suppose that means they “let “ it lapse and Shelby Legendary picked it up? Good thing I didn’t bet any money
Does this mean superformance is coming after my Cobra badges?

[twobjshelbys]

My recollection was that Ford owned the Cobra trademark for everything EXCEPT the Shelby roadsters. That is what let them put Cobra on things like Mustangs and Torino.

Shelby Legendary is the Shelby marketing arm of Shelby American. They are acknowledging the trademarks of others which is standard practice. I'm betting Shelby still owns the Cobra trademark, and since licensing is pretty much all they do these days, still fairly protective of it.

[sunman]

Peggy Keenes article is real informative.
Came to Carroll in a dream…COpper BRAzed