Ford stock - anybody got an opinion??

kayakjack · #1 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 09:17 AM

Ford common stock is trading at around $2. Pretty low huh?

Are they going to be around in a few years? Go bankrupt? CEO Alan Mulally turn it around?

Good investment? Dumb investment?

What do you think??

Jack

Ron61 · #2 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 09:46 AM

Hard to say with that Billionaire dumping his stock. I think a lot of what happens is going to depend on what GM does. I am waiting until it gets down to around $1 a share and then may think about it. Right now they need money and are short of that as is GM.

Ron

392cobra · #3 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 09:57 AM

I'm waiting until the share price is on par to cheap wallpaper.

That way when they crater I am not really out anything.

speed220mph · #4 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:03 AM

Better wait until after the election. If the tax and spend guy--read socialist--gets in, the economy may go into a deep recession or even depression. There won't be many customers for new automobiles regardless of the manufacture.

jwd · #5 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speed220mph

Better wait until after the election. If the tax and spend guy--read socialist--gets in, the economy may go into a deep recession or even depression. There won't be many customers for new automobiles regardless of the manufacture.

That's going to happen regardless of who is elected. I beleive, the worst is yet to come.

Jim

Bob In Ct · #6 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:09 AM

Maybe PM, KO, JNJ, KFT instead (regardless of who wins). All will be around in 20 years and they will all send you dividends (at 15% tax rate) the whole time. Plus, they're all on sale right now.

Bob

RedBarchetta · #7 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 11:28 AM

Break-up value is how analysts are going to start looking at these large manufacturers. The robotic tooling, engine foundries and associated software, etc. is worth billions, even in used condition. Somebody out there would buy it in a distressed sale. So the key is figuring out what their infrastructure is worth, including any intellectual capital (patents, key personnel, etc.). So, yeah, $2/sh is starting to LOOK attractive but you have to do the math and make some assumptions to determine if the company is trading below LIQUIDATION value (which book value isn't).

I agree...we haven't felt the bottom yet.

BlackSnake · #8 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 11:46 AM

Bought 5,000 shares for right around 12,000 dollars less than 2 weeks ago, I will keep you posted??? Ryan

Steve Cassani · #9 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 12:17 PM

The Ford family owns a majority of the company. The remainder of the stock is dispersed among too many individuals for anyone to be able to influence the direction management decides to take. Kirkorian came as close as anyone might to being in a position to maker demands on the family. He chose to sell, at a loss. I doubt his block will be purchased by an individual, further diluting the influence anyone might have.

If you're interested in a company with assets in excess of the total value of the shares outstanding Ford is a reasonable choice. Shareholders are the last to be compensated in the event of a failure and most frequently are left with nothing. Ford is more of a concern than other companies because the family's fortune is well distributed over many assets, not just the company that carries their name. Shareholders though are not similarly buffered against what may become more a matter of resignation for the Ford family.

A merger of GM and Chrysler, with the current owners of Chrysler compensated in cash and preferred stock in the new company, promises to have sufficient sales worldwide to leave Ford a distant second among domestic manufacturers. The new GM will be able to hold off Toyota's ascendence for a least a few more years. Ford has no comparable strategy available to it.

Two or three years ago Ford and Renault took a close look at eachother. I don't recall who blinked... The precedent does not bode well for Ford and the company is worth less as a manufacturer today. The decline in value of Ford's inventory of buildings and machines has been less but this 'identity' has no future.

drj · #10 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 02:02 PM

Ford, what Ford? Anybody looked at Shelby stock lately? And I was pinning my retirement on it too!

John

Bartruff1 · #11 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 09:24 PM

But I think a good one...for $20,000 you can buy 10,000 shares. I think Mucalley is a genius and the gov will not let Ford fail for a variety of reason's. Look, the worst it can do is go down $2 and in 5 years ??? It might be up to $25 and you can buy a gt40 !!! I'm buying ...

speed220mph · #12 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 10:00 AM

Just in case you haven't heard . . . date 10-22-08 from Peter DeLorenzo of AutoExtremist:

"Captain Kirk" Kerkorian has decided that the new "Detroit Miracle" is too slow in coming, apparently. Kerkorian's investment company - Tracinda - released the following statement yesterday: "In light of current economic and market conditions, (Tracinda) sees unique value in the gaming and hospitality and oil and gas industries and has, therefore, decided to reallocate its resources and to focus on those industries." Which means that Tracinda is selling off its investment in Ford stock beginning with 7.3 million shares sold Monday, with the rest of Kerkorian's stake - 133.5 million shares - possibly on the block (we're talking at a substantial loss too, like to the tune of around $700 million since April - ouch. We can see leaning toward the oil and gas industries over the auto sector, but the gaming and hospitality industries too? Maybe not so much. Kerkorian is the classic impetuous investor with a ton of money and he wheels and deals at a prodigious rate, but there's no question that his dumping of Ford shares sends a dire message about the state of the domestic automobile business. That giant steaming bowl of Not Good has just turned into a full-blown buffet...

Murphy · #13 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 11:00 AM

Don't buy that cheap $2.00 stuff. I have some of the good $12.00 Ford stock. Just waiting for it to come back.

Bob In Ct · #14 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 04:21 PM

You guys are so pessimistic. What are the chances that FMC will follow in the footsteps of Desoto, Packard, Hudson, Studebaker and American Motors? Car companies have always been great investments, especially when they're making so many models that Americans want right now.

Bob

KevinM · #15 (**permalink**) 10-25-2008, 10:04 AM

When you look at break-up value, remember to subtract debt. Ford is carrying a lot more debt now than they were a few years ago, and they pledged some of those assets to back the loans.

That said, I think Obama will win, and the democrats are a LOT more likely to bail out the auto companies. The question is, will they do it in a way that doesn't greatly dilute investor equity?

If they survive without a lot of dilution, the stock will be worth far more in 5 years.

Kevin

bulletbrown · #16 (**permalink**) 10-25-2008, 10:54 AM

Lets bring in more duty free imports and completely destroy America, what we need now is a good car made in China, that should do it, are you listening WALMART , you can take over the auto industry next.