Looks As If Blu Ray Will Win

[Wes Tausend]

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It's my opinion that Toshiba gave up because there already is a winner ...and it isn't Blu-Ray. Of course there is a lot of hype and banner waving right now; that's marketing.

My thought is that standard DVD is going to be the norm for a long, long time ...that it has already won. Toshiba quit because it's a losing proposition to try to advance high definition video of any kind. Standard DVD is just a little too good.

I suggest that HD video will go the way of HD audio. How many of us have HD audio players or have even heard of them?

I believe one of the main reasons both HD formats have been promoted is that it is too easy to copy the contents of standard CD and DVD. And that is why there is such desperation to ween the public away from them. But I predict that it won't work. Most people will continue to buy standard DVD until there is some kind of underhanded move, if ever, to kill the manufacture of new standard players. Kill the goose that is presently laying a lot of golden eggs for the movie industry. Won't happen IMHO.


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[Ronbo]

I'm guessing your referring to SA CD. They were a narrow market like half speed LP's, DAT and DBX. Most people don't have the stereo systems to hear the difference SA offered.

Unlike SA many people have HD TV's and would benefit from Blu-ray. There rolling out Blu-ray recorders for computers and stand alone recorders as well. My camcorder from 2yrs ago records in HD.

The HD DVD encryption was hacked about a year ago and Blu-ray is likely cracked as well. But it's the same problem, sure you can copy that DVD or just buy one at Wal Mart for $5 in the bin after 6mos.

[Aussie Mike]

Most of the free to air TV in australia is transmitted in digital HD. The uptake on HD TVs and projectors is quite high.

Cheers

[Joe Wicked]

Originally Posted by Wes Tausend

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I suggest that HD video will go the way of HD audio. How many of us have HD audio players or have even heard of them?
...

HD audio is still around. A lot of radio stations invested in HD broadcasting and they are transmitting in HD. My car stereo is HD Audio, and I can tell a difference, but my audio system is not completely stock. In a stock system with just a after market head unit, I could not tell a difference. In a completely redone system, I noticed was even better than mine.

[Ronbo]

NTSC had to go, like analog cell phones it just uses to much bandwith. The FCC is starting the bidding frenzy on the 700mhz blocks shortly so I doubt you'll see an extention to the kill date.

I'd imagine FM broadcast will get updated to a digital format in the next 10yrs or so. Believe it or not the stations themselves will push for this so they can compete with XM and Sirrus. These sevices will pull the same crap cable did, initially offer comercial free content then get people used to paying for it and offer "premium channels".

Satelite TV is even worse, they don't have the overhead of millions of miles of cable to maintain (and people though the cable company was a cash cow). Wired phone service is taking a beating from the cell companies as well. Right now they're trying to steal business from each other and I only see internet service stopping DirectTV from taking it all.

[clayfoushee]

Originally Posted by Ronbo

NTSC had to go, like analog cell phones it just uses to much bandwith. The FCC is starting the bidding frenzy on the 700mhz blocks shortly so I doubt you'll see an extention to the kill date.

I'd imagine FM broadcast will get updated to a digital format in the next 10yrs or so. Believe it or not the stations themselves will push for this so they can compete with XM and Sirrus. These sevices will pull the same crap cable did, initially offer comercial free content then get people used to paying for it and offer "premium channels".

Satelite TV is even worse, they don't have the overhead of millions of miles of cable to maintain (and people though the cable company was a cash cow). Wired phone service is taking a beating from the cell companies as well. Right now they're trying to steal business from each other and I only see internet service stopping DirectTV from taking it all.

That's an interesting question on the cost of satellite vs. land-based cable or fiber systems. According to the link below, it looks like each TV satellite costs about $350M, and Dish Network, for example currently needs 8. I would imagine it is bigger for Direct TV.

Dish: Local HD Would Cost $1 Billion, 3 Satellites, 4 Years

[Ronbo]

Ya, it's even worse now with the price of copper through the roof.

$350m for a bird is nothing compaired to billions in coax, line install crews, distribution amps and bucket trucks, employees ect.

Plus the sat company makes you buy the receiver, but they usually give you a free $75 install.

If they were smart they'd cut the price to $10, increase their subscriber base and get that much more money for advertising. This would kill off any competition in a few years.

[Ron61]

Ronbo,

I don't buy my satellite receivers. I lease them and they have a $5.95 a month maintenance agreement which I also get. So far they have changed out two of them for me at no cost. I do have the option to buy but just don't see why I should and then if something goes wrong I have to pay for it. As for all the stuff about Hi DEf and everything, I won't be here when that is finally settled. As for the billions in Coax maintenance and installation, that is why this cable company had to sell to a large one as they did not maintain the cable and the TV was off half the time. Now with their better improved service you can see the talk and buy channels well, but everything else is a pay extra type and the service is just as lousy. As for Fiber optic, the only cables we will ever see here are the ones that they started putting between the computers to link them. I don't believe that people in this area will ever see the day they run fiber to the homes.

Ron

[Wes Tausend]

Originally Posted by Wes Tausend

...

It's my opinion that Toshiba gave up because there already is a winner ...and it isn't Blu-Ray. Of course there is a lot of hype and banner waving right now; that's marketing.

My thought is that standard DVD is going to be the norm for a long, long time ...that it has already won. Toshiba quit because it's a losing proposition to try to advance high definition video of any kind. Standard DVD is just a little too good.

I suggest that HD video will go the way of HD audio. How many of us have HD audio players or have even heard of them?

I believe one of the main reasons both HD formats have been promoted is that it is too easy to copy the contents of standard CD and DVD. And that is why there is such desperation to ween the public away from them. But I predict that it won't work. Most people will continue to buy standard DVD until there is some kind of underhanded move, if ever, to kill the manufacture of new standard players. Kill the goose that is presently laying a lot of golden eggs for the movie industry. Won't happen IMHO.


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You guys make some really good arguments about the rise of HD video. I still think that BluRay will not replace standard DVD video the way that DVD has replaced VHS which is what I should have said. In that respect, std DVD wins. I hope they do co-exist and encourage more and more HD programming.

Sony will probably continue promoting the BluRay format but I think they are still losing money over it, at this point anyway. The reason that Toshiba got out.

My 51" 1080i HDTV looks only slightly better on pure HD than it does on 480i DVD or quality 480i digital channels. DVD recordings of 480 digital programming look pretty good also, with little loss, except they are 4:3 aspect. And some dvd S-video copies of PBS HD rival boughten DVDs and are widescreen. The jump up from DVD to HD is a small one to me, and probably many others, in a cost-benefit ratio.

I had forgotten about it but I accidently noted that SACD is available on my Sony DVD jukebox last night. We don't use it that often but the wife wanted to watch "Planet of the Apes" again, since she caught only part of it on TV.

I don't think I've got a SACD music disc to try and I should get one. There was another competing format just called "DVD-Audio" that nothing I have will play unless one of my computers would. I don't think I'd be able to hear the difference. Too many years of locomotive cab noise, I'm afraid.

Ronbo is probably right about bandwidth issues but I would guess that many FM stations won't do it until forced. Our local Off-Air Fox TV station is still a digital holdout here. That was particularily disappointing during NFL HD broadcasts since Fox bid into it this year. But at least their NTSC station is UHF which seems to carry slightly more detail than local VHF, if that makes sense. I hope Fox doesn't fold up locally, over upgrade investment. I live in a relatively small market area.

The rest of the Off-Air HD network channels are not entirely reliable in that they "pixel out" once in a while and take the audio with them. My wife won't willingly watch them because of this, choosing NTSC versions instead. I'm not sure where the problem is. I'm using a multi-element exterior antenna and get an excellent reading on signal strength. Might be my cheap digital tuner but I have seen the same problem across local HD brought in by the cable to the bedroom set which has its own ATSC tuner. But then the bedroom TV is a cheap appliance too.


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