[Excaliber]

Well #1 is possible, in other words they might fall short of even 51 votes. They won't go for the option unless there sure they have that many first though.

#2 is a "maybe not". Sure SOME Demo's would loose election's, but I doubt it would be a wholesale slaughter. The Repubs haven't gained a lot of support, more like the Demo's are getting bashed as good the Repubs are now. Still it's a "vote against" rather than for syndrome. National support FOR the bill was/is gaining some traction. I suspect that had it passed it would gain even more support in time. Obama still looks like a safe bet for a second term, with or without it.