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Wish I could add something useful but there is no rhyme or reason to pricing.
First off even though it's going to be frigging cold it's holiday time. During December all the Christmas decorations are out and the closer you get to Christmas the more the costs. The hotels are into overdrive at this time.
Check out tripadvisor or something like expedia...there are many. Just get an idea because those rates are going to be killer during this time.
Maybe an expert is the way to go.
Also note there are two or three timeshare hotels in Manhattan that you can look into. Sometimes people rent their timeshares in these places. I know a few that have used them as an alternative.
Good luck
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