The future of Cobras and hobby kit cars?
 

Do you think Cobra popularity have increased or decreased, and what's your prediction of the hobby kit car business in 10, 20 years?

Any Cobra dealers/makers (FFR, ERA, Shell, Kirks, BDR, SPF, CSX, etc.) willing to share sales data?

thks,

nyg

Interesting question, why do you ask?

Not likely. :rolleyes:


Bill S.

I think the entire collector car segment, including these Cobras are going to have a big adjustment going forward. Not that I'm looking forward to it.

The next couple generations (I'm over 50) I have noticed are less and less car-centric, and many young guys are about as dumb about cars now as what women were teased to be years ago. Many I'm pretty sure would be challenged to change a tire. Using a clutch for many raised on automatics is way beyond them. Many are not exposed to repairing cars or even adjusting something. I have tried to talk to some of the young guys about adjusting timing, something that isn't done of course on modern engines and their eyes gloss over and they don't even know what the heck I'm talking about. Carbs the same thing, it might as well be a mysterious black box. Of course there are gear heads and racers who are the exception, but when I was in HSchool every guy just about knew about cars and could ID cars and discuss various engines they came with, etc.

I think the pre-war, even pre-60's cars are heading for a big downslide as the generation they are relevant for are getting on in years. The bulk of new generation doesn't want cars that struggle to reach to 60mph, have no creature comforts and are so totally out of date. You can see this in the popularity of "resto-modded" cars that are more user friendly and have modern car powertrain, suspension and even A/C.

RE: Cobras, well they are not typical cars are they? While the Miatas and other sports cars will be the bulk of what most people can afford or play with, I think there will be a market for Cobras as an extreme sports car. Just not sure how many of the newer generations are going to have the ability or interest to build them.

The prices are constantly changing on collector cars. The last "adjustment" happened about 2010, when you watched the price of cars either drop 10-20%, or just remain completely stagnant. Now in the past 2 years, these cars have started their travel back uphill, often surpassing the pre 2010 price.

As for me, I'm looking forward to the market dropping out again. I'd like to start buying classic cars every couple of years.

Other than the clutch argument, the same can be said about generation before generation. "Every guy" when you are in high school did not know those things across the board, it is just how you want to remember it in your circle of friends. Interest in cars as a hobby, whether it be racing or shows, has been rather consistent for the past 40 years. Sure, some things have changed such as going from American muscle to "Tuner" cars, or from tuning a carb to doing the tune through a computer, but statistically speaking, the interest as a percentage hasn't changed. But cars have continued to go up in price, and there are a lot of other distractions in this ADD world so many of the cars are simply out of reach for the younger generation.

How many "car guys" over 50 know how to tune their car through EFI-Live? Or how about building their own micro-squirt setup? Sure, they know how to adjust timing by moving the distributor, but give them a new car and they are as lost as most living people are when it comes to adjusting a carb.

I kind of agree with this, but lets face it, most of those pre 60's cars weren't selling that great anyway. Here comes an obvious exaggeration; The market for a car that looks like a box with little to no styling, pretty much does nothing fun, cool, or interesting will always be the same. Of course certain collectors will still want the "first", or the "rare", or just the interesting antiques. But the wooden wheel cars never really had a huge market for collectors in terms of collecting or value. That isn't to say that some of the higher end or historically significant cars don't go for big money or garner huge interest.

Without knowing the cost or performance of a Cobra, pretty much anyone can look at it and say, "COOL CAR!". That goes from 4 year olds to 80 year old women. It doesn't matter. When you add in the performance, whether it be the power to weight ratio and handling of the original or replica, or the significance and heritage of an original, the Cobra will always be a landmark car.

As far as the Cobra popularity question asked in the original post, my guess is that a lot of these manufacturers go the way of the dodo. If it isn't do to the rising manufacturing costs of a limited build car, it will be do to federally mandated guidelines. If you are asking simply about the interest of the Shelby Cobra, I bet it stays the same for many decades to come. While the new cars are getting more and more animated, people will still yearn for that raw power without computer aide. Anything from classic muscle, to more modern cars like the 2nd gen Viper or Carrera GT, will continue to at least follow inflation. In other words, there will always be a market for them, and perhaps down the road, the value will increase considerably more.

And as I type this, the CSX2135 1963 289 Cobra goes for $885k.

Most young men today know only where the fuel goes in. Past that, well.......

Attended SAAC 39 yesterday at RA and as I walked around (I'm 54) I noticed a lack of young (25 and under) people. My guess is the average age of the crowd was low/mid 60's. There were two boys about 12 yelling and cheering the vintage races on in the afternoon, but no others that I could see in that age group.

Guessing the CSX 2000 and 3000 cars will hold some value for the next 15-20 yrs and start to decline. The value decline will be due to the size/financial ability of the group of guys who grew up wanting these cars (obviously).

Never bought a 'fun' car as an investment. Just hope I'm healthy enough to have carefree miles of enjoyment. My desire when I sell my cars is that the next person will take car of them and have as much fun as I did. If I can sell them without taking a huge hit; all the better.

Why would you expect otherwise at the SAAC? Young people are not part of the "rich guys club".

Now go to some weird tuner event and note the full stands and lack of old people. :LOL:

The first question of the post included CSX cars and a large number of SAAC members have CSX cars.

Never been to a "weird tuner event"-are there a large number of CSX, ERA, FFR, BDR, KIRKS, SPR cars?

If so, guess the popularity of the kit car hobby is solid.

tuner events usually involve young people under 30, DJ spinning techo music, Monster Drink sponsors, lots of big rims, lots of slammed cars, lots of turbo kits, lots of gadget interiors.

most cars are imports or the cars u see in today's video games.

It would be a weird event if someone brought their daddy's Cobra

I live in California. When I registered my car two years ago, I was told that the allotment of 500 "sequence number" applications for specially constructed vehicles (kit cars and home-made vehicles) had not been used up the previous year and I understand that they have not been used up in the subsequent years. I was told that in prior years, the numbers were used up well before the end of the year. There is also a form of lack of encouragement for SB100 licensing as the DMV seems to be applying closer scrutiny to the steps in the process. Of course, the easy path is to buy a used car that already has the SB100 exemption. Still, the drop in the number of new applications may be indicative of decreased interest in Cobras.

I responded to the OP's question in my first post. My reply to you was specifically addressing your response.

For the most part, young people can't afford hundred thousand dollar cars. And they don't really fit it with a bunch of old rich guys. So they don't go to the SAAC events. They can afford these tuner events though, and the cars in them. So that is where they go. They still have an interest in cars, but they stick to what their pockets allow.

Using an SAAC event to judge the interest of the younger generation who are in to Cobra's is hardly a quantifiable correlation. I'm sorry for the confusion.

NYGuy...you writing some kind of term paper or freelance mag article or something?

...or are you just infatuated with this segment of the car culture?

:cool:

Interest in Cobra replicas will always be there, but we are probably past peak demand. Moving forward, there will be more Coyote motors and 18 inch rims. Less concern with authenticity.

nope. not in school or a journalist. just a tech geek who loves old school cars.

I am in a "green" relationship. We drive electric, use public transportation, we recycle, we shop at farmers markets, blah, blah, blah, even our house is painted green.

And I wanna see my wife's daily disgust when she goes into the garage and sees our environment friendly electric car parked next to a gas guzzling, loud, outrageous, in your face Cobra!


nyg

yin and yang:cool:

I know that look well, since it's on my Prius driving next door neighbor's face everytime I take the roadster out.

Kobura's point is pretty valid with the drop in new CA SPCNS applications, probably true across the country. I also expect by 2025 DMV regs will require all registered cars to meet some fairly strict emission standard, and maybe even a tax, should one opt to not go mainstream green. The future of this hobby is not so bright imho.

Sure can't argue with that logic. :p

I have Silicon Valley engineers that buy cobras and have us help with them - in one case his cobra was the first stick shift and first carbureted car he had.

As far as where the hobby will go, only time will tell.

Steve

I have Silicon Valley engineers that buy cobras and have us help with them - in one case his cobra was the first stick shift and first carbureted car he had.

As far as where the overall hobby will go, only time will tell...

Steve