The POOL ROOM

[BMK]

Trularin

Dave,

Sorry missed the question on the economics.

My thoughts are we are a little behind you guys there in the US. The old saying the USA sneezes and we catch the cold does not appear to be accurate.

I think we both caught the cold at the same time..

I can only relate to what I see on the ground - my benchmark - as to how I see it with my lot here.

We moved property at the right time - I missed the Run N Gun doing this last year.

Whilst I am cognisant that job loss and reduction in hours etc. has been felt in both Geelong and Mt. Gambier it is not to the magnitude that you are experiencing there.

I do not want to generalise here, as the economists will tell a different story with the stocks etc, bank bills etc.



I use the basic measure of just asking people, ..how is it going? Whilst I know this is a straw poll I'm getting some very different answers.

Some are saying they are still flat out - we have been waiting for a plasterer for six weeks to complete walls in the garage. Our neighbour in Geelong works for Rip Curl and they are still flat out with a sales growth forecast of 8% - maybe down from 12% but....

My shares on the ASX have dropped considerably but I'm not selling. The banks have dropped from $60 to $27 (CBA). Others have taken a similiar hit. If you can afford to buy blue chip now is the time. Just watch Warren B. there in the States...

The fast food industry is going OK with a lot of people moving down a level in their restaurant spend and type of restaurant visited. I'm seeing a lot of people in the restaurants and McCafes that have previously not been there before. Our challenge is to give them a great experience and ensure they come back and back again.

I also think that we have all spent a lot of money in our restaurants and we are seeing the results.

Many of my friends in business have dropped off staff and some have used the state of the economy, as an opportunity to re visit staff and performance - rightly or wrongly. They have looked at discreational spending as well and made some changes here also.
My gut feeling is the business sector will come out of this quite strong with many of these changes.

Nothing like micro management...

[schipps]

Bernie ,

Mostly I would agree but I really think we haven't even begun to see our falls in Oz yet. Look at new car sales down 30 -50%. unemployment only just starting to rise. People are still borrowing way too much!

Here's a recent quote I like, "“If you jump out of the window at the 42nd floor and you’re still doing fine as you pass the 27th floor, that doesn’t mean you don’t have a serious problem.”

I hope you are right Bernie, but why should Australia be immune to the world problems?

Mick