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Kirkham Motorsports

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 01-05-2019, 06:41 PM
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Default Is the Backdraft market soft?

Iím thinking about selling my Backdraft (long story, I just have too many cars). This one, #1068, just sold on BaT for $43,750. It is a really clean car but the selling price seems really low. Is the market soft? What are you seeing for resale values? Iíd like to get $55k for my car and while it has Wilwood brakes and 18Ē wheels/tires, I donít think the overall presentation is as clean as this.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19...helby-replica/
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Old 01-05-2019, 07:14 PM
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Prices are down across the board on all performance vehicles. The January auctions are going to be a bloodbath. The market has basically tanked and the disposable income is now being guarded. Add to that the seasonal adjustment and it's a buyer's market. Don't believe it if someone says "I want to sell but don't have to" because the "don't have tos" aren't even trying right now.

Wanna good deal on a Heritage Ford GT? I don't have to sell it.
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Old 01-05-2019, 08:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffnolan View Post
Iím thinking about selling my Backdraft (long story, I just have too many cars). This one, #1068, just sold on BaT for $43,750. It is a really clean car but the selling price seems really low. Is the market soft? What are you seeing for resale values? Iíd like to get $55k for my car and while it has Wilwood brakes and 18Ē wheels/tires, I donít think the overall presentation is as clean as this.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19...helby-replica/
The buyer paid over $45,000 for that car after fees. I'd say that's pretty fair for a pre-owned BDR.
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Old 01-06-2019, 02:28 AM
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I don't know about back there but out here the market is down quite a bit for all performance cars. I saw a couple of really nice Cobras that the owners were asking $60K for and they wound up selling them for $50K and $48K. And I see others that look good listed in the mid to lower $40s. The first two were cars that were here and I actually knew them and the owners. The lower listed ones I don't know about but one was an ERA which normally brings higher prices than some others. If you don't have to get rid of it in a hurry, set your price and stick to it for a while and see what happens.

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Old 01-06-2019, 07:38 AM
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Yes, the muscle car market is soft. These cars are somewhat unique given they are not collectible or investment grade, and there is a perpetual niche market of older guys who had the poster on their wall as a kid. But soft it is. I might just hold on to the car for a while and see how things play out.
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Old 01-06-2019, 09:15 AM
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Also, when I purchased 3.5 years ago there was ample supply for a good choice of which way to go. Between Cobra Country and eBay there are relatively few examples for sale.

In 2015 it look like prices/depreciation had moderated; now everything is much less expensive.

Anybody need a second Cobra ? great time to buy
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Old 01-06-2019, 11:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffnolan View Post
Yes, the muscle car market is soft. These cars are somewhat unique given they are not collectible or investment grade, and there is a perpetual niche market of older guys who had the poster on their wall as a kid. But soft it is. I might just hold on to the car for a while and see how things play out.
In some ways I disagree. I agree about the replica cars not being collectible, even Shelby CSX and Kirkham. There are simply too many of them and as long as they are continuing to be built the supply will exceed demand. And the new versions put a cap on the price you can get for an old one. But I believe the market is getting soft because the target market is drying up. 5 or 10 years ago the sixty year old retirees that were still able to enjoy a toy were buying them up. Now they are getting to be 70 and not so able. So the used market is getting saturated with cars coming off "retirement". And this applies not just to Cobras. Other "muscle" cars are suffering from the same effect.
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Old 01-06-2019, 01:43 PM
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Yeah, I think you are correct. The Cobra replica market really does cater to a fixed demographic. A previous comment said the “market is down quite a bit for all performance cars” and that simply is not true. The Porsche market, as just one example, has been eye-popping for all cars air cooled and a lot of the buyers are younger. A new crop of 30 year olds is coming up every year and a lot of them can afford $100k pre-owned cars. The muscle car market has definitely cooled off, the market for performance cars in general is more varied.
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Old 01-06-2019, 02:55 PM
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If we can address the Porsche phenomenon for a moment. First off, the 356 built around the same time as the org. Cobras, I believe those low horsepower cars (60-110+), that any ol'fart can still drive well into their 80'-90's, even with their let's just say "Quirky" handling. Now the 911, built from 65 on, are a whole different animal, even low Hp cars 150+ are a handful, again handling play's a big part, but those are brought by many younger folk's that had a 930 Turbo on their bedroom wall Plus million's of Porsche's built, compared to a few ten's of thousand Cobras (Recreations). Our cars even with just 300HP, lets just say, you still have to have your wit's about you, to safely herd ours down the road And I'm sorry to say, a lot of us understand that we just don't have that kind of reaction time, health, etc. to enjoy them anymore, and so off to their next caretaker Oh, and as we well know, you have to be a "Special" kind of person to own a Cobra, you have know what wench look's like By the way, I'm in no way bashing Porsche's as I've owned a few over the years, and the gentleman where my car being finished is a Ex-Factory Crew Chief, that worked on the 935', 956's, 962's, and owns one of the nicest 65 356SC. Cheers Tom.
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Old 01-06-2019, 03:22 PM
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I’m not sure what your point is. I only brought up the Porsche example to highlight a performance car market that is not soft. But it really doesn’t matter because comparing original to replica car pricing is a fools errand.
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Old 01-06-2019, 04:21 PM
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My point is, Porsches will always have a large following, (young & old), again millions built, so vintage Porsches will always have many well-heeded buyers, so prices are what a large group is willing to pay aka: Strong large market. (Like Tony said) where we have supply over demand, so the market for our cars will be down. I'm sorry if you didn't want to hear that, but it's a fact. Example: Last year I found a 6800 mile ERA 289FIA for a friend, seller wanted 60K, Buyer ended up buying it for 48K. Not quite sure where you came up with "comparing original to replica pricing is a fools errand" I made no mention of original Cobras? I brought my Cobra because I love it, not what it's worth at any given time. Cheers Tom.
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Last edited by Alfa02; 01-06-2019 at 04:39 PM.. Reason: Changed a word
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Old 01-06-2019, 05:14 PM
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First, only a shade over 1m 911s have been produced over 50+ years, not “millions”. Even adding in 356 models wouldn’t push to millions. Yes, large following and growing. This is my point, Porsche has a great track record of bringing new people into the brand. Secondary market pricing is stable, and for many model generations the pricing benchmarks are strengthening, but they still don’t sell quickly unless you have a particularly desireable model or interesting pedigree on a particular car. Even CPO cars can sit on dealer lots for a while. Replica Cobras don’t sell quickly either, but the pricing is obviously weakening and I think @twobjshelbys has it right, the fanbase for these cars is dying off and younger generations associate the Shelby brand with modern Mustangs more than Cobras.

Please don’t assume you know what I want or don’t want to hear. I posted the original inquiry and I simply wanted to see what other owners are seeing in this market. Pricing is what it is, a number and if I had to sell the car for a specific number then I’d probably be worried but I don’t so I’ll just let it sit in the warehouse with a battery tender on it. I still drive it on ocassion. As for fools errand, I never said anything about original Cobras vs replicas... What I was saying is that it’s foolish to compare the Porsche market to replica cars.
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Old 01-06-2019, 05:45 PM
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Wow, if I offended you (jeffnolan) in any way? I'm sorry. You brought up the Porsche pricing, not me and I just added to the idea, that yes, their are on the rise, and our cars are not. Sorry Club Cobra guy's if I went off topic, I'm not going to get into some silly back & forth here. I thought everyone could have a opinion? Cheers Tom.
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Old 01-06-2019, 05:57 PM
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In my area, the majority of "twenty somethings" not only don't own any sort of car at all, a lot of them don't even know how to drive any car nor do they have a driver's license. They don't know what a clutch is, can't change a tire, and couldn't syphon gas out of your tank if their life depended on it. I haven't heard the old "is that car real" for years now. Instead, I hear "what is that?" The chance that those kids are going to want to buy any stick-driven, high performance roadster, real or replica, in twenty years is pretty much zilch.
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Old 01-06-2019, 06:17 PM
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Another consideration with these Cobras - unless you are comparing 2 or more identically built/specified NEW cars from the likes of SPF or CSX who can offer such a thing quite easily, all these cars are very unique. You really can't compare a pre-owned Cobra's sale price with another easily. Order sheet, build quality, age, mileage, owner maintenance and condition vary widely within even the same MFR. Just because a car you would expect to sell for $50K, sells for 10% less, doesn't mean the sky is falling. That's fairly normal variance. Now, if clean maintained CSX 4000 cars start selling for $50K (normal 100K +/- market) then you can start saying the market is collapsing.
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Old 01-06-2019, 06:22 PM
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I now tell people the car is an REO Speedwagon and, almost invariably, the response is "oh wow, I've heard of that."
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Old 01-06-2019, 08:14 PM
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What I gathered reading the sales ad and looking over the photos.

That car is build 563 (listed on the bottom list of the Cert of Origin) 2007.
The 17 wheels are more of the giveaway on the vintage.
Wiring looks like a 16yr old kid got a hold of it. (Battery has stacked pickoffs, Fast controller box wiring exposed). Man if if you want to show the box at least get it right side up.
Front springs falling off the upper perches.
L-R valve cover breathers have a bit of the "I got enough fittings around the the garage to make this work" look. At least get two breathers that match even if you can't plumb.
Dyno sheet from 2013 shows 589 FWHP. and it drops to 376 RWHP in 2018?
Most shops use a 15% power loss which would make it appox 500 RWHP. Even a 20% loss puts it around 470 RWHP. I'm throwing up the BS Flag on the 2013 dyno sheet.
Paint and Body work were done by a Jeff Miller. I'm guessing Jeff painted the Block and Tranny since BDRs come pre-painted (Quite nicely) and this car's paint matches the Cert of Origin (Same paint that's on mine).
Not a bad car and its a fair price for an early BDR.
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Old 01-07-2019, 06:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twobjshelbys View Post
In some ways I disagree. I agree about the replica cars not being collectible, even Shelby CSX and Kirkham. There are simply too many of them and as long as they are continuing to be built the supply will exceed demand. And the new versions put a cap on the price you can get for an old one. But I believe the market is getting soft because the target market is drying up. 5 or 10 years ago the sixty year old retirees that were still able to enjoy a toy were buying them up. Now they are getting to be 70 and not so able. So the used market is getting saturated with cars coming off "retirement". And this applies not just to Cobras. Other "muscle" cars are suffering from the same effect.
Here are the Baby Boomer demographics:

76M total

born 1946-1964

several birth years of 4M plus, peak was 1957 (now 61-62 y.o.)

Boomers retiring at the rate of 10,000 per day

majority of Boomers are 65 or younger

So we don't have a problem with "60 year old guys" fading into the sunset, and won't for 10 more years

What we have is a housing/stock market that has weakened, both of which affect the discretionary income needed to buy interesting cars
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:11 AM
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$43k doesn't sound so bad to me for a BDR; keep in mind that it looks like that situation was one where the buyer bought the car cheap, finished it and made a few bucks in the bargain.

Just to throw out some numbers, depending on how it's built with what parts, BDRs go for $25-$50, similar to Factory Fives.
Superformance go for $40-$80, ERAs go for $45-$90, Kirkhams go for $90-$130.

(Don't mean to incite a riot; just my observations; not my intend to offend anyone)
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Old 01-07-2019, 12:27 PM
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dacobb & fastd,

I agree fully. Very well said!

John

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