Anybody follow Peter Schiff?

[Scott S]

I have been watching a few of the videos around and the guy does seem to get it right more often than not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cRsP7_90go

They are a bit long but I think well worth watching.

Scott S

[Wes Tausend]

...

Scott,

Unfortunately, I think Schiff is right to a large extent. It just makes logical sense as to what he is saying.

Perhaps I should say that I don't believe this whole economy collapse is really a partisan affair. There are factions in the US that have heavily influenced both major political parties to allow a sort of high-end corporate control over profiteering that is ultimately funded by productive working folks, us, as always. The economy will come back when we, the workers, produce enough real wealth under handicap.

One way I like to look at political parties is that they are like football teams in the NFL/AFL. It's fine, and even fun, to " dis' " opposing teams, put them down and call them names. But in the end, it is most important that the league(s) remain healthy ...or the game will really be over. In reality, the teams are not that much different and they are uniquely all-American. So I like to try to be open-minded. Food for thought.

In these videos, Fox news was attempting to paint a rosier picture than it should have been by discrediting Schiff, but I believe they have always been a strong supporter of the Bush Administration, which had a ways to go until election when these were shot.

The O' stimulus package will probably buffer panic for a while but all that will do is give those of us that listen-up time to prepare for the inevitable severe decline.

If McCain had gotten in, he'd probably be taking the same preliminary steps, as you may note in his support of the original bail-out. I think both these tentative administrations knew the bull was already loose in the china shop. At the risk of generating unrelated controversy, I do think that if McCain had gotten in 2000 that he would have purposely acted more fiscally conservative and this may have been prevented. That is what classical Republicans did best, is save tax burdens by holding spending in check and encouraging responsible investment. And, I too, wish Clinton had never signed NAFTA, blending us with lesser economies, but he too, was pro-corporate, riding the wave. Partially due to that blunder, now our once-middleclass economy is getting Mexicated etc.

My state of North Dakota is full of very fiscally conservative Republicans and even when Democrats have influence, they are quite careful with public spending. As a result, this state still has a very healthy coffer, with surplus again this year. Of course $1.2 Billion wouldn't go very far in most states.

The US economy will come back to some extent, but I think it will be a while. Housing took a long time to recover from the early '80's, but it slowly did.

Wes


...

[cobra de capell]

He makes so much sense in the interview that I am now wondering if the only thing left to do is buy guns and gold? (Oh...and don't forget the ammo).

Look forward to Argentina-like hyperinflation in the next 2 years.

From Arnold Toynbee: “Civilizations are not destroyed by murder, but from suicide.”

We are all so screwed.

[cobra de capell]

He makes so much sense in the interview that I am now wondering if the only thing left to do is buy guns and gold? (Oh...and don't forget the ammo).

Look forward to Argentina-like hyperinflation in the next 2 years.

From Arnold Toynbee: “Civilizations are not destroyed by murder, but from suicide.”

We are all so screwed.

[427 S/O]

It's hard to argue with a guy that's been 'right' so far.............

[95CobraR]

Originally Posted by 427 S/O

It's hard to argue with a guy that's been 'right' so far.............

He was only correct on one prediction. The remainder of his predictions have proved to be very wrong.

It was all explained in The Wall Street Journal.

[427 S/O]

Which one and a link would be helpful........

[95CobraR]

Originally Posted by 427 S/O

Which one and a link would be helpful........

The Wall Street Journal is a paid subscriber site. If you pay or want to sign up for two weeks for free, here is the link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123327685671031439.html

Right Forecast by Schiff, Wrong Plan?
Peter Schiff predicted a collapse of the U.S. financial system. The bust-up he didn't foresee was the one that made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008.

Mr. Schiff's Darien, Conn., broker-dealer firm, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., advised its clients to bet that the dollar would weaken significantly and that foreign stocks would outpace their U.S. peers. Instead, the dollar advanced against most currencies, magnifying the losses from foreign stocks Mr. Schiff steered his investors into.

You can also compare his hedge funds returns to his competitors.

[427 S/O]

His prediction on the financial system is yet in progress, as well a the weaken dollar.
We'll see.........

[95CobraR]

Originally Posted by 427 S/O

His prediction on the financial system is yet in progress, as well a the weaken dollar.
We'll see.........

I'd agree that we are seeing the largest Federal monetary mistake in our history going forward. Obama and his team are quickly moving us into new "Great Society" programs.



Nonetheless, Schiff's fund lost 48% last year. He was right about the American stock market, but was very wrong on the international stock markets and the direction of the currencies. The world is not decoupled from our economy.

John Paulson actually made his clients a lot of money.

Paulson & Co. soared an astonishing 550% in 2007 on founder Paulson's bets that the subprime mortgage market would sour, and to follow that up, his various funds posted gains ranging from 7.9% to 37.6% in 2008 -- impressive numbers given the market's dive. Paulson made huge short bets against Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE - News) and other financial stocks in 2008 and then turned around and bought into late-year volatility and arbitrage opportunities in the space.

Any bet against the US dollar is a bet for another currency. The Yen and Euro have their own problems (they already have their Great Society programs). You can't hide in the ruble nor can you trust the Chinese communists.

I have to pay my monthly bills in US dollars. I look for (safe) investments in dollar dominated assets. Otherwise, I must worry about currency risks as well as foreign stock market risks. I have no experience in reading and understanding foreign currency company balance sheets.

We will see. Money is a great way to keep score. The more you have (after taxes); the better you did.