What if............

[Traveller]

......Shelby didn't stop at 300 427 Cobras but instead continued to build them into the 70's, or even into the 80's.

The reason I ask the entirely hypothetical question is because of a thread Cal Metal had regarding dealers that had Cobras in the 60's and the difficulty they had in selling a completely impractical roadster for the (at the time) princely sum of $7,500+ per unit.

This got me thinking. The reason these cars didn’t sell isn’t because they weren’t desirable. Hell, we are all here on this forum some 30 years later because we share a passion (obsession?) for this one particular model of automobile.

So, if Shelby made more “original” Cobras for a longer period of time, what would have been the result?

Here’s my hypothesis:

1) They would have been cheaper. Fixed costs spread over more units = lower cost per unit.

2) There would be no replica industry filling a need that, at the time, Carroll Shelby failed to realize existed. He realizes it now, however, he’s a bit late to the party.

3) Used, “Original” Cobras would be selling at Barrett-Jackson for a lot less than $300-$500 thousand.

4) I might actually be driving an “original” Cobra right now.

[Mr.Fixit]

Why would somebody keep manufacturing units if they wouldn't sell? "I made a few hundred, nobody is buying them, I guess I better build several thousand more."

[Traveller]

Then why do you figure he's started making them again Mr Fixit?

I read somewhere that there's something close to 20,000 Cobra replicas built since the late 70's.

So the reason he couldn't sell 300 originals had little to do with peoples desire for one, did it?

[SSS]

The answer is probably cost. You are assuming the "princely sum" would drop, but if there are no customers, it wouldn't make sense to produce more. How much did a replica Cobra cost in 1972?

[Traveller]

I'm not assuming anything. The cost to manufacture 3000 would certainly cost less than the cost to manufacture 300 unless his cost structure was 100% variable, which is a theoretical impossibility.

The only thing we can’t discern is how much he would have saved without knowing his fixed to variable cost ratio.

And I think my point about 20,000 cobra replicas on the road proves there were, and are, customers.

Now, someone give me an acceptable inflation rate over the last 30 years and I’ll try to make another point.

[Mr.Fixit]

If you manufacture a product that has no buyers, you lose money on each unit. If he did make thousands, he would simply lose less money per unit. It doesn't matter how cheaply you manufacture a widget if you have no buyers, all you do is turn money into a useless inventory of unsellable widgets.

"So the reason he couldn't sell 300 originals had little to do with peoples desire for one, did it?"

People's desire for it WHEN HE WAS TRYING TO MAKE AND SELL THEM is what was important, not how much people would desire them a decade or two later.

Shelby started making his own replicas after a bunch of other people capatalized on an unforseen (in the 60's) market, decades later when the market price for replicas became high enough to justify manufacturing more of them. If anybody knew how valuable musclecars would become by the 80's, everybody would have stored wherehouses full of convertable hemicudas, ZL-1 camaros, etc. back in the late 60's, nobody did.

[Dan Semko]

Here's a better what if, for you. What if Superformance owner, Jim Price, purchased AC, lock, stock and barrel including paying all creditors and in that deal, he purchased the rights to the "real registry" including the CSX numbering system. Since we know that AC is the true originator of the cobra and the registry is owned by a person that could build a limited run of alloy FIA's, what effect would this have on ALL CSX numbers, resale values and who would really be manufacturing original cobras?
Hang on to your hats folks, a storm is brewing....the line starts on the LEFT.

[Turk]

If Jim Price had been building Cobras for the last 25 years, all that would change would be SPF's would cost $13,995. Instead of $39,995.
They would still be SPFs. Not Shelby Cobras.

But, you knew that!

TURK

[Edley Rondinone]

Dan: Probably NO effect. The original/vintage Cobras are a finite set. Other cars made since the original/vintage Cobras will not have the value that those same original/vintage Cobras currently enjoy. Correct me if I am wrong, but were not ALL the "bulbous" 427 Cobra bodies made in the good ol' USA, at Shelby's place near LAX airport, near El Segundo? Just wonderin'!

[Cal Metal]

All of the 427 CSX bodies/chassis were made in Thames-Ditton, England

[Rick Parker]

It's all about Money. Shelby was a retired race car driver that had a dream to build a car and no money. (sound familiar) He has stated openly more than once that he built the earliest cars to finance a racing effort with the 260/289 AC Cobra. They are the cars that created the lore and reputatin for racing not the 427. It is easy to forget the time frame these cars were from. However all of the 289's racing except for SCCA for the most part was over by 1965. There were still many "Afordable" English sports cars coming into the market at that time that made the Cobra seem archaic by comparison. The 427 Cobra was an extension of that on another scale, Built to directly compete heads up with the 396 and 427 Corvettes. They could handle the Corvettes but were outclassed by any other car that it was classed with and very quickly it became a rude, hot, did I say HOT, expensive rough riding race cars. All of the Muscle cars were coming to market and were portrayed by the Mfgr's to much more sexy & desireable. We currently purchase these as an extension of our personality and desire to own somthing we percieve to be the quickest accelerating car ever made in the US. When the racing was done so was Shelby, Ford jerked the funding and began to focus on the new 64 1/2 Mustang. Shelby was given the opportunity by Lee Iococa to make a sport version of the Mustang, hence the GT350 & GT500.

Just my .02 worth

Rick