NEWS: New bill in US Congress would allow for turnkey replicas

[olddog]

Why bother shutting down these cars, when they hate the unwashed masses owning any internal combustion engine. Just make gasoline $12 a gallon. Their billionaire friends can still play.

I recall an interview where he said fuel will be phased out over the next 10 to 15 years. So far it looks like he may deliver a little sooner than that. No judgements or opinions here, just stating what was said and what I have observed.

Those electric Cobra's are looking a little better all the time.

[Mark IV]

The rule requires a certified engine, this doe NOT mean it will be a "certified crate engine" but it can be a "piggyback" certification i.e. the powertrain from an current production vehicle. We used this to EPA the AC MK IV, it was the Mustang 5.0 powertrain and as long as the weight was within a percentage (or less) and the ratios were within an allowable range you could certify with a simple tailpipe test and the evaporative "shed" test. So the fact that GM has certified crate system has no bearing on using a Coyote or an Ecoboost in a certified replica.

[twobjshelbys]

This whole thing is one of those "suppose they gave a party and noone came" things...

This has been in the pipeline for a couple of years. There was some early flurry around it. Manufacturers have had a lot of time now to dwell on it and prepare, expecting that it would eventually become law...

Noone signed up.

There was never a flurry of activity around the Cobra space.

There was some around some of the older classics like the early Mustangs and Corvettes. One of the places that sells "new Mustang bodies" licensed from Ford even said they were interested...

If it happens I would expect the non-Cobra space to jump first (really, there's lots more people interested in 65 Mustangs than Cobras). But so far...

Like Curley said, "I'm trying to think but nothing happens"...

[Mark IV]

Originally Posted by twobjshelbys

This whole thing is one of those "suppose they gave a party and noone came" things...

This has been in the pipeline for a couple of years. There was some early flurry around it. Manufacturers have had a lot of time now to dwell on it and prepare, expecting that it would eventually become law...

Noone signed up.

There was never a flurry of activity around the Cobra space.

There was some around some of the older classics like the early Mustangs and Corvettes. One of the places that sells "new Mustang bodies" licensed from Ford even said they were interested...

If it happens I would expect the non-Cobra space to jump first (really, there's lots more people interested in 65 Mustangs than Cobras). But so far...

Like Curley said, "I'm trying to think but nothing happens"...

So you know all the players in the industry and they all told you they are "not interested?" I am aware of 7 companies moving forward on production plans and I am personally involved with 3 of them.

[twobjshelbys]

Originally Posted by Mark IV

So you know all the players in the industry and they all told you they are "not interested?" I am aware of 7 companies moving forward on production plans and I am personally involved with 3 of them.

I'll guarantee you that if there was interest it would be all over the automotive press. It ain't. I'll believe it when I see it.

[twobjshelbys]

This, from the bill, is perhaps the biggest barrier to entry:

4(B)(ii)[the vehicle]is manufactured under a license for the product configuration, trade dress, trademark or patent for the motor vehicle that is intended to be replicated from the original manufacturer, its successor or assignees, or current owner of such rights, unless there is a preponderance of evidence that such rights have been abandoned for at least three years".

The abandonment probably applies to Cobras (given Shelby's suit of ages ago) but the volume barrier remains. (I know I'll lose money on each one, but I'll make it up in volume.)

We'll see...

[Mark IV]

All three I am involved/aware of are licensed by the trademark/trade dress owners. But the rights to build Crosley replicas is open so go for it!

[twobjshelbys]

Originally Posted by Mark IV

All three I am involved/aware of are licensed by the trademark/trade dress owners. But the rights to build Crosley replicas is open so go for it!

I'm not criticizing the law, only the expectation that it will turn the Cobra space into a new business model. I'm sure there will be some players in this space, I'm just doubtful that any of the major Cobra Replica folks will either abandon their "kits" nor add a complete vehicle line to their lineups in favor of a fully supported line of turnkey cars.

Why? It comes down to a TAM (Total Available Market) tradeoff. The Cobra market is fairly saturated with a cost point that is well known. Completed vehicles will add huge to that price due to the infrastructure costs. And since TAM for commodity products very nearly obeys entropy rules (TAM can neither be created nor destroyed, ie a buyer for a new commodity subtracts one from one of the others), I can't see anyone trading a well known business model for an unknown one. In other words, a line of completed cobras is not going to be supplemental to the total number of Cobras built.

Other cars could be successful. Good luck.

Can't think of any line that I'd be interested in with the possible exception of the Lotus 7 (in Prisoner dress) but Hillbank already sells the Caterham.

Doesn't Dynacorn have most of the Ford products already under license (Mustang for sure, and I think old Bronco)?

It'll be interesting to see the price band of vehicles built under this new paradigm.

[patrickt]

Jeez, how hard is it for someone to just buy a roller, buy an engine, and have a custom garage drop one in to the other? If someone really wants one of these cars, that's half the fun. I don't think this new rule is going to make a lick of change in the Cobra world.

[Mark IV]

Originally Posted by twobjshelbys

I'm not criticizing the law, only the expectation that it will turn the Cobra space into a new business model. I'm sure there will be some players in this space, I'm just doubtful that any of the major Cobra Replica folks will either abandon their "kits" nor add a complete vehicle line to their lineups in favor of a fully supported line of turnkey cars.

Why? It comes down to a TAM (Total Available Market) tradeoff. The Cobra market is fairly saturated with a cost point that is well known. Completed vehicles will add huge to that price due to the infrastructure costs. And since TAM for commodity products very nearly obeys entropy rules (TAM can neither be created nor destroyed, ie a buyer for a new commodity subtracts one from one of the others), I can't see anyone trading a well known business model for an unknown one. In other words, a line of completed cobras is not going to be supplemental to the total number of Cobras built.

Other cars could be successful. Good luck.

Can't think of any line that I'd be interested in with the possible exception of the Lotus 7 (in Prisoner dress) but Hillbank already sells the Caterham.

Doesn't Dynacorn have most of the Ford products already under license (Mustang for sure, and I think old Bronco)?

It'll be interesting to see the price band of vehicles built under this new paradigm.

There IS a market for these. There are people who want instant gratification as well as a Federally certified car with a WMI VIN will be easier to finance both for a retail buyer and for a dealer floor plan. As the VIN will show in VIN programs, banks will now see some collateral value in the cars, see what happens when you go to a bank with your state assigned VIN.......

As the #1 volume Caterham dealer in the US I can assure you that when we have certified "turn key" cars, we will have buyers. The current registration system turns many buyers off. Being a "Custom" or "Composite" model designation as well as the process and time involved in registering is a deal killer to some prospects. Being able to saunter down to the DMV with an MSO and bill of sale and have the VIN come up on the DMV computer will make some people happy.