Just Two Housing Permits

[Ron61]

I saw in the Redding paper this morning that they only issued two permits in January for new single family housing. Also saw that many of the homes that have been foreclosed on are now being used by the homeless. One homeless guy the interviewed who was just out of prison said they considered it low cost housing and especially since some of them still have the power and water on. I don't know about the rest of the state and country, but the Redding area is really getting into a depression mode fast. Two more small stores closed last week. And the city wants to spend $65 million to build a new police station because it would cost so much to have the roof of the one they have repaired.
Oh and one more minor thing. The city budget is so far in the red they don't have any idea of how to balance it.

Ron

[wtm442]

Hey

11,500 posts. Keep up the good work.

Situation looks glum in your area. Housing prices week in my area.

[Ron61]

Warren,

Things have been kind of going downhill here for years since they basically shut down the logging industry. They they wisely got rid of the agriculture that we did have as they just had to have those darn malls. Now about the only work around this area is in the service industry and that doesn't pay a lot. Even the real Estate places here are cutting back on their people. And the cities around here just keep spending money as if they had any.

Ron

[4RE KLR]

Two, wow sounds like Redding is Booming. Hell I am on the way Ron!

There is so little construction here the illegals have even started to leave. It seems the cities have started a war against them as they are consuming all the services and contributing nothing. DUHHHH. No $HIT!

There is nothing in the way of construction going on. There were some apartments going up as the thought was that since everyone is loosing their homes they will have to live somewhere, and the apartment companies can gouge for whatever rent they want. Funny thing is when a couple of them go ready to occupy there is no one to live in them.

I still believe we have not seen anything bear the bottom!

[Ron61]

Steve,

Sad to say but I think you are right. I don't think we have gotten close to the bottom around here yet. The house on the corner across from me has been empty for a month now with a For Rent sign and I haven't even seen anyone over there looking at it except the guys that take care of these places for the company that owns them. I bet the rent has gone up beyond belief as they will be gouging everyone for all they can. I think the illegals around here are getting worried because the cities are so far in debt they can't even take care of them. And yet, all I see is Redding wanting to spend millions they don't have on new buildings and car lots.

Ron

[427sharpe]

Originally Posted by Ron61

Now about the only work around this area is in the service industry and that doesn't pay a lot. And the cities around here just keep spending money as if they had any.
Ron

Welcome to the 'new' economy! The longhairs decided long ago that America just didn't need to make anything you couldn't fit in a cardboard coffee cup. It's been a slow erosion of our econmy ever since, and the mess belongs to both political parties. We wont enact tariffs to stop foreign dumping, we export good jobs overseas (NAFTA, anyone?) and we spend $ hand over fist in foreign aid to countries that defile us. THEN we sit on our a$$es and wonder what happened to the American Dream! We (yes, I include myself) let the wankers do this to us, and it's time to take back what is ours by raising some he// in D.C.

Ok, I feel better now.

[GlynMeek]

wow...I voted democrat last time, and I COMPLETELY AGREE with Sharpe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Excaliber]

Well it doesn't sound like much has changed in Redding then...

I left town about 20 years ago because the area was so freakin' depressed it was to hard to find steady employment. Went to Oregon, like THAT was any better! Seems like the Oregon economy pretty much follows the Northern Calif economy.

Hawaii has been good to me, I think I'll stick around...

[Wes Tausend]

...

The slump isn't everywhere but it I think eventually will be.

Houses are selling fine where I live ( Bismarck Tribune - Bismarck News - Expert says N.D. housing market is bucking national trends ) and, yes, it was 8F below early in the day but it is 12F above now.

Homes are fairly cheap, about $110k up ( Bismarck Tribune - Bismarck News - Expert says N.D. housing market is bucking national trends ). Labor is cheap (right-to-work state) here, but very little is done by illegals. Too darn cold I guess. I think part of the local boom is due to the westward expansion from St. Cloud, Minn. to the Fargo area which was recently one of the fastest growing areas in the US. It helps that land is cheap, farm prices are up and there is a lot of coal and oil in the state. In the past, oil booms have left towns stranded when the boom ran out and it will happen again. City planners, as usual, don't seem to have a clue. Still, most cities and the state itself, are currently running in the black.

In the past, during national slowdowns, I noted that a lot of itinerant crews, such as roofing, drywall, framing and concrete would drift into the area seeking work and even a few developers took the opportunity to move in. Few stay. It takes a knack to make money moving like that and an even bigger knack to be welcome back (Caveat emptor).

In the past, the national slump always hit this area, but after it began elsewhere. Then it stays here when recovery is underway in other parts of the country. It kinda paid to realize that when I still worked in the housing construction industry.


...

[jshel1]

There are at least 20 high rise apartment/condo projects under construction in Dallas... usually a minimum buy-in of $700K per unit. We are lagging behind both coasts in the mortgage crunch, but it will prove interesting as these are all finished out.

[4RE KLR]

Originally Posted by 427sharpe

Welcome to the 'new' economy! The longhairs decided long ago that America just didn't need to make anything you couldn't fit in a cardboard coffee cup. It's been a slow erosion of our econmy ever since, and the mess belongs to both political parties. We wont enact tariffs to stop foreign dumping, we export good jobs overseas (NAFTA, anyone?) and we spend $ hand over fist in foreign aid to countries that defile us. THEN we sit on our a$$es and wonder what happened to the American Dream! We (yes, I include myself) let the wankers do this to us, and it's time to take back what is ours by raising some he// in D.C.

Ok, I feel better now.

I could not agree with you more. I think th American people have been getting screwed long enough.

[4RE KLR]

John,

That is my point, they are starting to finish out and they are not filling p like they were supposed to. I predict the hit to the Multi-family and commercial areas of construction will be far worse than the residential. simply becuase those guys never quit.

It will interesting to watch this play out, but I for one would like to get out of this business once and for all. I have had it! 23 years is long enough I just do not want to fight this crap any longer.

[jshel1]

Just as I relocated to the Dallas area, I remember the IH-30 sell up out east by Danny F. and a group of his cronies back in the early to mid-eighties.

Locally, they were attributed with the Savings and Loan crash that spread nationwide. All of that property has sat dormant for the last 25 years. Much of it still has foundations cluttering it; all would have to be raised to develop further. Bass Pro snatched up a primo place right on the lake, opposite the Danny F. offices.

That small development of 200 acres while significant, is a drop in the bucket compared to the 4K-5K acres along the IH-30 corridor that remains littered with abandoned construction.

It would be a terrible thing if same happened to a city skyline.

[Madmiles442]

The high rise residential money in Dallas has long dried up, these projects are just being finished up at the end of their cycle. The number of tower cranes really is amazing though.
Industrial, mixed-use and some commercial projects are still out there and are being funded. But those markets have crested, except maybe industrial. If you don't have your money by now, better have a tenant in tow.
Mixed use retail and power center retail are still going nuts, but saturation is only 3 years or so away.
I really do think the DFW market was smarter this cycle and didn't overbuild considerably beyond saturation, except maybe high rise residential. There will be some good deals there for those with cash and the ability to wait til the next wave to buy some soon-to-be struggling properties.
Watch for airport projects and schools to pick up again...

[4RE KLR]

Miles,
I hope you are right and I know that is your business, but I also know that many, many new apartment projects are on the drawing boards and in the cities right now for construction.

Our engineer told me he is working on seventeen brand new complexes in Tarrent county alone. In his talks with other firms they have the same number or better either in the works or have already broken ground.

[Scott S]

Originally Posted by 4RE KLR

Miles,
I hope you are right and I know that is your business, but I also know that many, many new apartment projects are on the drawing boards and in the cities right now for construction.

Our engineer told me he is working on seventeen brand new complexes in Tarrent county alone. In his talks with other firms they have the same number or better either in the works or have already broken ground.

All will be building with Oregon lumber I hope....

I have work and promised contracts through the end of the year as long as the mills that are running still will take the wood. There are a lot of logging contractors not working and if you don't pay the bills their cost to operate is far cheaper than mine.


It is starting to look like we will need another 12-15 million migrants to fill all of those empty homes.

Scott S

[Ron61]

Maybe we should forward this thread to our politicians who never get out of their tax paid ivory towers so they can actually get a taste of the real world. Scott, I hardly ever see a logging truck go through now as the mill here has cut back so far. At one time we had 5 mills working 24 hours a day and the logging trucks blocked traffic all the time. We now have one mill that has a huge pile of logs and really no one buying much lumber. So that translates into a lot of lost jobs. One friend of mine whose brother owned a mil and truck fleet of log trucks and other 18 wheelers went out of business a year or so ago. Sold his stuff for a fraction of its worth as he figured anything was better than losing it all to the state. Things around here are so bad the homeless have stopped coming and the illegals are leaving.

Ron

[4RE KLR]

Scott,
Unfortunately I am sure they will be built with metal studs. It seems the morons with power around here think they are better than what God himself is capable of making.

I am sure it political, and absolutely nothing to do with quality. If you have the right political connections you can murder many people and get off. I know DAMNED well if you have the right political connections here in Fort Worth you can burn down someone house and get off with no punishment.

[Wes Tausend]

Originally Posted by 4RE KLR

...It will interesting to watch this play out, but I for one would like to get out of this business once and for all. I have had it! 23 years is long enough I just do not want to fight this crap any longer.

After the slump, it'll get better, even boom ...because there will be a shortage of housing again. I used to like to think of it, in simple terms, as so many hundred kids graduating each year, pairing up and buying/renting housing, one for each pair. A steady flow creating the irrevocable need that always will be met. I still personally believe that nothing else is as satisfying as being self-employed when all is said and done.

If you've been doing this for 23 years, you probably just missed the catastrophy in '79 and the early '80's. There had always been an approximate off/on 7 year cycle before this ...but '79 took the cake. Because there had been concern for inflation, Carter took the controls off interest rates and they skyrocketed almost overnight. I was a small drywall/plaster/paint contractor with about 12 employees in Bismarck, about 30k population then. The Death Nell began to ring.

One of my jobs was 144 unit apartment complex that was nicely progressing as set of twelve 12's. That was a sizable project for this little hamlet. Almost all my single family business dryed up within 2 months. The 144 unit? They boarded up the rough frame-ups right in the middle of the project and I never went back to it for 2 years. All my help was gone, so I partnered up with a self-employed buddy and we split the earnings. My buddy had almost nothing except what I had.

The final blow was a simple move by my wife. We were rather destitute but all my bills were being paid on time in spite of extreme difficulty in some collections (banks get theirs first). The kids were drinking powdered milk at this point. She once brought up that we could cancel our business phone which cost about $50/mo at the time ...but I refused, saying that even one job in a month paid the yellow page ad back. Then one day I came home and the phone was cancelled. I had bid two jobs that day. I remember it so well.


...

[Ron61]

Steve & Wes,

This will get better, I just don't think we have reached the bottom here yet. I have never seen so many house for sale signs in this little area. But it was bad here back when they shut down all of the mills and a lot of people did leave. We have never recovered what we had before that, but were doing ok until this latest slump.

Ron