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Old 10-27-2010, 11:36 AM
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I'll try to steer this back to the original subject regarding the price increase. I believe that SA is manufacturing limited (even more so now with the demise of HST). That is, demand is exceeding supply. I do not believe there are an excess of rollers sitting in Shelby's lots, that instead all available production is going to dealers with relatively long lead times. (Dealers with inventory might have thought they had a market and be buying on spec, so there may be excess isn't in dealers' lots). If that is so one of the following will happen:

1. The change in price is a means of reducing demand to existing capacity. Some customers will drop off the list, but some will remain. The price increase will level off the demand and stabilize the waiting time.

2. It was an overall bad choice and more customers will leave than needed to stabilize capacity to demand, resulting in overproduction. Either capacity or prices will be reduced to adjust.

If the price increase holds up, then I would expect that others manufacturers of equal quality will seek to increase their prices as well (as it is shown the market can bear it), and they would be faced with similar concerns of capacity leveling.

There is not a lot of TAM (Total Available Market) in this space, so the shuffling of 10s or 100s of units is all we're looking at. But in this respect, Cobras are a commodity and this is a commodity move.

If the price increase holds, then this is part of the invisible inflation we know it's there but aren't supposed to talk about it) as that is what I just described.

And yes, I meant BMW suspensions. It makes me wince as much as using a GM engine. It's not to say they can't be beautiful on the outside.
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twobjshelbys View Post

1. The change in price is a means of reducing demand to existing capacity. Some customers will drop off the list, but some will remain. The price increase will level off the demand and stabilize the waiting time.
I am not under the impression that CSX demand from SA exceeds capacity right now......
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Old 10-27-2010, 01:56 PM
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I am not under the impression that CSX demand from SA exceeds capacity right now......
I believe it does, but it may be that they are JIT based and only build and finish to order. I would be building body components ahead and finish to order. Maybe they don't.

The imbalance is probably going to be worse now that HST is no more and the lag to shift production to Vegas. A whole production line will have to be moved. The Cobra shop in Vegas is a finishing/detailing are, not a manufacturing area so space will have to be found and tooling installed and staff hired and trained. I would guess 6 months before it's back on line. Some of the lifers at the prison might still be around
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Last edited by twobjshelbys; 10-27-2010 at 02:02 PM..
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